Economist's Insights

Today’s Trading Activity – Trump Jr.’s Tweet Sets Off Media Whirlwind, Weighs on Market Sentiment

Jul 11, 2017

The biggest bout of volatility in Tuesday’s session was sparked by a tweet (and subsequent media storm) from Donald Trump Jr. that included a copy of an email chain between him and others about a pre-election meeting with an attorney allegedly linked to the Russian government. The tweet was time-stamped at 10:00 a.m. CT (and by the market close was “retweeted” 12.1k times and “liked” 20.9k times). At 10:08 a.m CT, stocks moved sharply lower and Treasury yields (softly) rallied. The S&P 500 moved from almost unchanged to down 0.7% in just 18 minutes. The 10-year Treasury yield moved from +0.5 bp to -1.1 bp over that period. Also responding to the tweet, the Dollar erased its overnight gain and moved lower for the day. For stocks, the tumble was temporary and the major indices spend the rest of the day reclaiming lost ground. The Nasdaq gained 0.3% while the Dow and S&P were almost unchanged by the close. Treasurys and the Dollar didn’t see a similar bounce. Both fell slightly further than their 10:30 a.m. CT levels and finished near their lows of the day. The 2-year yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.38% while the 10-year yield settled 1.3 bps lower at 2.36%.