Economist's Insights

June 2018 Monthly Review

Jul 2, 2018

The Treasury curve flattened to a new cycle low in June as strong data fueled expectations that growth could top 4% in 2Q for the first time since 2014 but longer yields were stagnant in response to other uncertainties. The 2-year yield added 10 bps while emerging market concerns, a dovish ECB decision, and renewed angst around trade weighed on global equities and kept the 10-year yield essentially flat. The U.S. said it would move forward with tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports which pushed Chinese equities fell into a bear market and the yuan to a more-than-six-month low against the Dollar. Oil was a major focus, as an OPEC announcement for increased supply failed to ease pricing as lower U.S. inventories and supply disruptions in Canada, Libya, and Iran proved more impactful. Click here to view the full monthly review.