Economic Flash

Continued Escalation of COVID-19 Outbreak Yields Uncertain Outlook

by Craig Dismuke, Dudley Carter

The news regarding the coronavirus outbreak and the expected economic implications has deteriorated further since our last forecast revision.  Additionally, the collapse of oil prices is expected to have a negative effect on some regions of the country, and has added to risks for the credit markets.  At the time of our last revision, we expected the Fed to cut another 50 basis points but believed they would be able to wait until April to do so.  Given the recent developments, we now expect the Fed to cut 50 basis points at, or before, their scheduled March 18 meeting.  Additionally, the likelihood of the Fed cutting to zero has now increased meaningfully.

The information included herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but it is not in any way guaranteed, and it, together with any opinions expressed, is subject to change at any time. Any and all details offered in this publication are preliminary and are therefore subject to change at any time. This has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual or institution. This information is, by its very nature, incomplete and specifically lacks information critical to making final investment decisions. Investors should seek financial advice as to the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies mentioned or recommended. The accuracy of the financial projections is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary from the projections. The firm may have positions, long or short, in any or all securities mentioned. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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