Economic Flash

Updated Vining Sparks Economic and Interest Rate Projections (and Bloomberg Survey of Economists)

by Craig Dismuke, Dudley Carter

June 2019 Update

Attached are our updated economic and interest rate projections.  Because trade negotiations have been unresolved for longer than expected and inflation has proven weaker than expected, we have lowered our interest rate projections for 2019.  We now expect the Fed to cut rates by up to 50 basis points this year followed by an attempt to raise rates again in 2020.  While everything hinges on the resolution of U.S. – China trade talks, we do not believe the economy is currently on the cusp of a recession, as indicated by some financial indicators.  Rather, we see softer-than-target inflation giving the Fed room to ease policy and extend the longest economic expansion on record.

Click here to view the survey.

The information included herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but it is not in any way guaranteed, and it, together with any opinions expressed, is subject to change at any time. Any and all details offered in this publication are preliminary and are therefore subject to change at any time. This has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual or institution. This information is, by its very nature, incomplete and specifically lacks information critical to making final investment decisions. Investors should seek financial advice as to the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies mentioned or recommended. The accuracy of the financial projections is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary from the projections. The firm may have positions, long or short, in any or all securities mentioned. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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