Prepay Commentary

April MBS Prepayment Speeds



May 7, 2018

 

April MBS prepayments fell slightly versus the prior month, a surprise for many market watchers and participants, most of whom predicted a slight increase for the month. Thirty-year and fifteen-year FNMA MBS slowed 3% and 1%, while FHLMC MBS remained unchanged to slightly higher, +2%, respectively. GNMA I MBS dropped -6% for thirty years while remaining almost unchanged for fifteen years. GNMA II MBS posted decreases of 5% and 3% for thirty and fifteen years, respectively.

For the pertinent application period, mortgage rates held steady around 4.25% for thirty-year rates and 3.5-3.75% for fifteen-year rates, levels not seen since 2014. The MBA Refi Index illustrates the lack of borrowers who have not already had a chance to refinance before the steady climb in interest rates began in 2016. This Index hit a 9.5-year low the week ending April 27th at 1104.90. In addition to higher mortgage rates, a still relatively weak housing market will continue to keep the MBA Refi Index low and range-bound for the foreseeable future.

Next month, May MBS prepayment speeds should post a CPR increase month-over-month. With a higher day count and better seasonal factors, increases of around 5% to 10% seem likely.






 



FNMA Speeds by Vintage Year

FGLMC Speeds by Vintage Year

GNMA Speeds by Vintage Year

Non-Generic Collateral Comparison Tables



James Plunkett

Director of Investment Product Strategies

Vining Sparks


Amanda Noa

ViningĀ Sparks


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