Prepayment speeds for equipment loan pools slowed and real estate pools sped up this month, each reversing their direction from July. Seasoning continues to overwhelm other pool characteristics and the path of speeds as pools season remains consistent with previous months. Equipment loan pools fell below their six-month moving average and real estate pools ascended above theirs. While the direction of the monthly aberration may fit well with narratives based on the recent course of the economy and interest rates, statistical variations and technical factors probably attributed more to the one-month changes than a flatter yield curve or economic growth trends and the moving averages provide a truer representation of prepayment trends.
