Prepay Commentary

January SBA Prepayment Speeds



January 2019

 

Equipment and Real-Estate SBA 7(a) pools both gave back some of the December declines and posted increases month-over-month. Equipment pools overall posted a manageable increase of only 2%, but this warrants taking a deeper look at the vintage buckets. Real-Estate pools, on the other hand, posted a 16% increase.

Equipment Loan Pools

While in total, CPRs for the Equipment pool population increased by only 2%, there is quite a bit of variance even when only looking at vintages with meaningful outstanding balances. For example, investors concentrated in 2017 originations are looking at a 30% increase month-over-month whereas those with more exposure to 2016 and 2015 origination are respectively looking at declines of 4% and 20%.

Real-Estate Loan Pools

Real-Estate speeds by vintage were more uniform. Every vintage of consequence (save 2018) posted fairly hefty month-over-month increases at or north of 20%.

A Few Thoughts to Keep in Mind

 

SBA Prepayment Tables (Click for Details)

Prepared according to methodologies described by SIFMA.

 









Kevin A. Smith, CFA

SVP, Director Investment Product Strategies

Vining Sparks

KSmith@viningsparks.com


Adam Hofer

Analyst, Investment Product Strategies

Vining Sparks

AHofer@viningsparks.com


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