Prepay Commentary

November MBS Prepayment Speeds

For coupons of any significant balance, MBS prepayments decreased slightly in November. We wrote last month that we thought October was more-or-less an outlier due to the extra couple of business days in the month. It appears that was the case as speeds decreased slightly and fell back into line with September. At this point, to see any meaningful move in prepayment rates would seem to take a fairly meaningful decline in mortgage rates and/or changes in economic conditions. As it stands, the S&P 500 is down over 4% for the month and this morning’s job report was fairly weak compared to the rest of 2018.

(WSJ) Borrowers Are Tapping Their Homes for Cash, Even as Rates Rise

“More than 80% of borrowers who refinanced in the third quarter chose the ‘cash out’ option, withdrawing $14.6 billion in equity out of their homes, according to government-sponsored mortgage corporation Freddie Mac. That is the highest share of cash-out refis since 2007.”

(WSJ) Retreat of Smaller Lenders Adds to Pressure on Housing

“Bankers and other industry watchers expect the ranks of smaller nonbank mortgage lenders to keep shrinking in coming months, as rising rates dry up the once-lucrative mortgage-refinancing business and make home purchases costlier.”

For the year, based on the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30yr Fixed Rate Mortgage rates are up 86bps from 3.95 to 4.81. 15yr Fixed Rate Mortgage rates are up 83bps from 3.38 to 4.21. For perspective, on a mortgage balance of $250,000 this increase represents additional monthly payments of $127 and $103 respectively.

FNMA Speeds by Vintage Year

FGLMC Speeds by Vintage Year

GNMA Speeds by Vintage Year

Non-Generic Collateral Comparison Tables

Kevin Smith, CFA

SVP, Director Investment Product Strategies

Vining Sparks

The information included herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable, but it is not in any way guaranteed, and it, together with any opinions expressed, is subject to change at any time. Any and all details offered in this publication are preliminary and are therefore subject to change at any time. This has been prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual or institution. This information is, by its very nature, incomplete and specifically lacks information critical to making final investment decisions. Investors should seek financial advice as to the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies mentioned or recommended. The accuracy of the financial projections is dependent on the occurrence of future events which cannot be assured; therefore, the actual results achieved during the projection period may vary from the projections. The firm may have positions, long or short, in any or all securities mentioned. Member FINRA/SIPC.
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