Agency Update

February 12, 2018



Agency yields moved lower this week, with most of the movement occurring in shorter term finals, resulting in a steeper yield curve.  Two-year Agency yields fell 10 bps to 2.09%, 5-year Agencies declined by 9 bps to 2.58%, and yields on 10-year Agencies decreased by 1 bp to 3.18%

 

Yield spreads for Agency bullets compared to Treasuries contracted by 2 to 3 bps, while yield spreads on callables versus Treasuries were mixed.  Spreads tightened 3 to 6 bps for 2- and 3-year finals and 10 to 14 bps for 10- and 15-year finals.  Contrarily, structures with 5-year finals widened 4 to 14 bps.  As seen below, Agency callables with 5-year finals are appealing from a relative value perspective, as current spreads compare favorably to their 12-month averages.

 

 

 

Currently, discount callable Agency bonds including step-ups offer greater yields than do bullets of similar terms, and, in a declining rate environment, the potential for more price appreciation than callables priced at or near par.  While the yield pickup versus non-callable issues comes with the risk of potential early redemption if yields decline, the yield boost from booking unamortized discount at the call date offers a very meaningful compensation.

 

The following table reflects last week’s total issuance and call activity across GSE issuers:

 

Issuer Issued Called
Federal Farm Credit Banks      277,000,000                                     –
Federal Home Loan Banks      193,000,000                                     –
Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp        65,000,000                    516,500,000
Federal National Mortgage Association                                     –
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp                                     –
Total      535,000,000                    516,500,000

 

 

On Wednesday, Federal Home Loan Bank priced a $3 billion 2-year global bond due on February 11, 2020.  It was its first new benchmark-type issue since October 2016.  The highlight of the agency coupon calendar in the upcoming week will be Freddie Mac’s announcement on Wednesday of any plans to sell reference notes.

 

Notable activity last week included:

 

 





 

 


Ricky Brillard, CPA

Strategist

Vining Sparks, IBG

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