ARM Update

November 12, 2019

Yield spreads on hybrid ARMs to Treasurys tightened 3 to 4 basis points last week on the sell off.  Mortgage-related sectors experienced similar spread changes with 15-year and 30-year fixed-rate mortgages tightening 6 and 4 basis points, respectively.  The broader bond market moved down in price on renewed hopes for a trade deal, sending domestic yields higher across the curve.

Since the rally at the end of 2018, ARM pricing spreads have widened significantly, reacting strongly to each move lower in rates.  For example, 5/1 ARMs have a 62 bp spread, almost 44 bps wider than they were at the start of the year.  Longer-reset 7/1s and 10/1s have a 68 and 76 bp spread, respectively, approximately 38 and 32 bps wider than levels in early 2019.  Certainly, the environment for ARMs has changed dramatically over the years with the flattening yield curve, but today’s spreads are well wider than those seen during 2017 at lower dollar prices.  Factors such as diminished liquidity, lack of index sponsorship, and the small market size have increased their spread concessions to fixed rates.  Overall, we continue to see relative value in 7/1s due to appealing yields, shorter durations, and less negative convexity than comparable coupon 15-year fixed rate MBS.  Investors concerned about potentially faster prepayments could focus on lower WAC new-issue pools or moderately seasoned paper.

The following chart reflects the week over week change in Z-spreads for ARMs.  Z-spreads tightened for GNMA, FNMA, and FHLMC products.

The ARM origination cycle continued last week, with 95.9mm in new-issue ARM selling split amongst Fannie Mae (73.7mm), Freddie Mac (15.9mm), and Ginnie Mae (6.3mm).  Supply continues to be focused in 7/1s with Fannie Mae issuing 52.2mm.  Fannie Mae also contributed to longer-reset 10/1 issuance with 20.8mm.  3/1 ARM products continue to be largely abandoned by lenders and the GSEs.  ARM gross issuance remains at multi-year lows as it came under 1 billion for the sixth consecutive month in October.

Hybrid ARM issuance remains quite low.  The monthly net supply of ARMs continues to run at a negative $2-3 billion pace, while fixed rates are expected to grow at $20-30 billion each month for the rest of the year.  As of November, hybrid ARM issuance represents ~ 0.36% of overall MBS issuance.  Nevertheless, issuance volumes have been at their highest levels in Ginnie Maes, followed by Fannie Mae. Despite the meager volumes, October hybrid ARM issuance as a percentage of overall MBS issuance trended slightly higher versus August and September.

Prepayments continued their general year-to-date trend as October prepayments for hybrid ARMs increased.  November-released factors indicated that October ARM prepayments increased 4.85% to 9.35% for all three agencies.  In aggregate, Fannie ARM speeds increased 2.6 CPR to 30.4, Freddie rose 2 CPR to 28.1, and Ginnie surged 1.5 CPR to 32.4.

Shorter-reset LIBOR-based Fannie 3/1s decreased 0.2 CPR to 23 and 5/1s increased 1.5 CPR to 32.1.  Longer-reset 7/1s increased 2.8 CPR to 32.2 and 10/1s increased 4.1 CPR to 26.7.  In the Ginnie sector, Treasury-based 3/1s, 5/1s, and 7/1s paid 31.8 CPR (+6.35%), 33 CPR (+4.1%), and 8.9 CPR (-70.82%), respectively.

On July 11th, the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) released a white paper detailing how an average of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) can be used in newly-issued ARMs in a structure that is comparable to today’s existing ARM loans.  The white paper shows how SOFR can be used to develop products that are built on a robust reference rate that is grounded in market transaction.  Here’s an overview of the ARRC’s proposed models of SOFR ARMs:

The desk continues to look to bid odd-lot positions for both conventionals and Ginnies for clean-up.  The disposition of odd-lot positions can result in enhanced transactional liquidity and higher earnings.  Also, this is an opportunistic time to consider eliminating smaller line items that are subject to standard safekeeping and accounting fees that are more palatable for larger block sizes.

Ricky Brillard, CPA

Senior Vice President, Investment Strategies

Vining Sparks IBG, LP

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