October 15, 2019
Demand for new-issue hybrid ARMs slowed, which resulted in yield spreads to Treasurys widening 1 to 2 basis points last week. Hybrid ARM spreads tightened in September, but they’ve widened out in October bringing spreads back to multi-year wides. The broader bond market moved down in price, sending yields substantially higher across the curve as US/China trade progress was enough to reverse course for risk assets and caused a selloff in Treasurys. We continue to see relative value in longer-reset 7/1s and 10/1s as they remain approximately 37 bps wider compared to levels in early March.
The ARM origination cycle continued last week, with 248.5mm in new issue ARM selling split amongst Fannie Mae (156.7mm), Freddie Mac (32.4mm), and Ginnie Mae (59.4mm). Supply was focused in 5/1s with Ginnie Mae issuing 58.4mm and Fannie Mae issuing 51.9mm. Fannie Mae also contributed to longer-reset 7/1 and 10/1 issuance with 74.2mm and 58.4mm, respectively. ARM gross issuance remains at multi-year lows as it came under 1 billion for the fifth consecutive month.
Hybrid ARM issuance remains quite low. The monthly net supply of ARMs continues to run at a negative $2-3 billion pace, while fixed-rates are expected to grow at $20-30 billion each month for the rest of the year. As of October, hybrid ARM issuance represents ~ 0.59% of overall MBS issuance. Nevertheless, issuance volumes have been at their highest levels in Ginnie Maes, followed by Freddie Mac and despite the meager volumes, September hybrid ARM issuance as a percentage of overall MBS issuance trended slightly higher versus August.
September prepayments for hybrid ARMs decreased for Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, while remaining unchanged for Fannie Mae. October-released factors indicated that prepayments decreased 4.04% for Freddie Mac and 2.22% for Ginnie Mae. Fannie ARM speeds remained stable at 27.8, Freddie fell 1.1 CPR to 26.1, and Ginnie decreased 0.7 CPR to 30.9.
Shorter-reset LIBOR-based Fannie 3/1s decreased 5.9 CPR to 23.2 and 5/1s increased .1 CPR to 30.6. Longer-reset 7/1s increased .6 CPR to 29.4 and 10/1s increased .3 CPR to 22.6. In the Ginnie sector, Treasury-based 3/1s, 5/1s, and 7/1s paid 29.9 CPR (-4.78%), 31.7 CPR (+.32%), and 30.5 CPR (-26.33%), respectively.
Last week, ARM activity was spread across a variety of lists and primarily focused on the following:
- New issue Fannie Mega 7/1s with coupons ~ 3.3% and ~ 5.5-year resets traded at a moderate premium ($103). This conventional ARM has a generous cap structures relative to GNMAs at 5/2/5. This lends to lower price impacts from rising rates.
On July 11th, the Alternative Reference Rates Committee (ARRC) released a white paper detailing how an average of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) can be used in newly-issued ARMs in a structure that is comparable to today’s existing ARM loans. The white paper shows how SOFR can be used to develop products that are built on a robust reference rate that is grounded in market transaction. Here’s an overview of the ARRC’s proposed models of SOFR ARMs:
- Most aspects of a SOFR-based ARM would use the same conventions that currently exist in US Dollar LIBOR-based ARMs, including the range of fixed-rate periods available, the timing of payment determinations, and the structure of caps on the amount that mortgage payments can rise at the end of the fixed-rate period and over the life of the mortgage.
- However, a few key components would differ:
- These ARMs would be based on a 30- or 90-day average of SOFR, rather than 1-year LIBOR. Because SOFR tends to be lower than 1-year LIBOR, the margin for newly originated SOFR-indexed ARMs would likely be adjusted upward so borrowers’ overall floating-rate payments are comparable to existing LIBOR-based ARMs.
- In order to ensure that these SOFR-indexed ARMs can be offered at rates consistent with other competitive rates in the market, under the proposed models SOFR-indexed ARM, the borrower’s monthly floating-rate payment would adjust following the fixed-rate period once every six months rather than once every year, as is currently the market standard for LIBOR-based ARMs in the United States.
- To safeguard against unexpected payment increases to the borrower, the proposed models would cut the periodic adjustment cap to 1%. As a result, the borrower’s payment, even in a period of rapidly rising interest rates, would not change by more than 2% over a 12-month period, in accord with the current market convention for LIBOR-based ARMs.
The desk continues to look to bid odd-lot positions for both conventionals and Ginnies for clean-up. The disposition of odd-lot positions can result in enhanced transactional liquidity and higher earnings. Also, this is an opportunistic time to consider eliminating smaller line items that are subject to standard safekeeping and accounting fees that are more palatable for larger block sizes.
Ricky Brillard, CPA
Senior Vice President, Investment Strategies
Vining Sparks IBG, LP