FRM Update

March 27, 2017



Fixed Rate Mortgage Market Update

Trading activity across the MBS and CMO sectors improved last week, but remains light compared to activity over the last month. The mortgage market continues to trade in a tight range with minimal changes in yield spreads. Yield spreads in 15yr and 30yr fixed MBS were unchanged to slightly wider to Treasuries and swaps last week. 30yr mortgage rates fell 7bps last week, but have increased 66bps post-election. Mortgage applications declined for the first time in a month, falling 2.7%. Purchase apps remain positive relative to mid-2016 levels, while refi apps remain very low. While the trend toward slower prepayment speeds is likely to continue, day count and seasonality will likely cause a bounce in March prepayment speeds.

MBS

 

CMOs

Trading activity in CMOs was also light last week relative to most of the balance of 2017 thus far, though availability of specific structures continues to limit activity as issuance remains quite weak. Notable secondary market activity included depositories buying front sequential structures and also buying VADMs with 3.5% and 4.0% coupons.

Rates and Refis

 

Housing

Existing Home Sales Decline:  Existing home sales fell more than expected in February, falling 3.7% to an annualized 5.48MM unit pace on weaker sales of both single family homes and condos. February’s pullback followed a new cycle-high pace in January.  Sales declined in three of the four regions and gains in the South moderated. Sales were 5.4% higher YoY and are equal to the prior two-years’ average. Inventory was up MoM but has fallen on a YoY basis for 21 consecutive months, and supply rose from 3.5 to 3.8 months but remains tight.

New Home Sales Set Seven Month High:  February’s new home sales were much stronger than expected. February’s 592k annualized pace (+6.1%) is second only to last July’s 622k pace. While February’s report was positive, the general trend remains choppy and sideways since last summer’s peak. Despite a slight uptick in the number of new homes listed for sale, the faster sales pace dropped supply on hand from 5.6 to 5.4 months.

 

 

 

Dan Stimpson, CPA

Senior Vice President

Vining Sparks

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